PHILADELPHIA –5 over Atlanta
Boy, that Michael Vick is exciting, isn’t he? The guy runs better than the majority of running backs in the league. He exploits any opening given to him and often creates his own. Despite being a quarterback, he finished 23rd in the NFL in rushing. If you’ve ever watched him throw a football, you’d know that he has a gun that most pivots can only hope for. Last week, Vick led his team to a 47-17 thumping of the Rams in a game where he ran for 142 yards. While Peyton Manning won the MVP for his incredible year, one could easily argue that Vick is as important to the Falcons as Manning is to the Colts. When considering who to take in this NFC final, it is impossible not to consider the talents of Vick and the current success of his Falcons. Unfortunately, that would be a mistake. Simply put, Atlanta is overmatched here. The lingering effects of that aforementioned win over St. Louis can easily influence your financial endorsement this week. The current 12-5 record of the Falcons may convince you that taking points here is a wise choice. It’s not. Atlanta is stepping up in company. A decent allowance horse running against a Grade One stakes winner, if you will. Playoffs and championships are about defense. If you don’t believe that, ask the Rams or the Colts or the Vikings. They all ranked in the top 10 in offense. They’ll all be watching from home. The Patriots, Steelers and Eagles all ranked in the top 10 in defense. The latter trio ranked one, two and three in fewest points allowed. The Eagles allowed a mere nine points more than the Steelers but would have been the league’s stingiest if they had not allowed 58 points in final two weeks of the regular season when they mailed in both games. Conversely, the Falcons ranked 14th in offense. It should be noted that the only team to ever win a Super Bowl when ranked worse than 10th defensively, were the 1983 Oakland Raiders. There will be those of you that will discount Philadelphia’s defensive ranking because they play in the weaker NFC. However, what does that say for the Falcons? Despite playing in the softer conference, they allowed more than 21 points per game, which again ranked them 14th in the league. That ranking is alarming when considering that Atlanta faced the three sub .500 teams in their division (Saints, Bucs and Panthers), twice each and also had the luxury of playing the doormat NFC West which includes the Niners, Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks. In order to be successful, the Falcons must be able to run. If they can’t run, they certainly cannot make it up with a passing game that finished 29th in a league of 32. Despite Vick’s apparent assets, he only averaged 150 yards per game through the air this season. That’s a problem against this Eagles squad that, when healthy, can be a very stellar stop unit. With run-stoppers Hollis Thomas and Derrick Burgess back in the lineup and the strong set of linebackers that Philly employs, this could be a nightmarish day for Vick and the ground game. This is also not Vick's preferred surface as it won't be on a fast track inside a dome. Andy Reid and this version of the Eagles arrived around the same time as the new millennium. They have been in this spot every year since. However, with a confident Donovan McNabb, an experienced and prepared coaching staff and the far superior team this time around, the Eagles will finally be making the long-awaited trip to Jacksonville. Play: Philadelphia -5 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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New England –3 over PITTSBURGH
The betting public was drunk on Peyton Manning and the Colts last week as money kept pouring in on the prolific Indianapolis side. And just like most drunken stupors, there is a subsequent price to pay. Upon the Patriots defeating the high-flying Colts in a dominating fashion, New England opened as a small favorite and once again the public immediately started backing the sexier team. Once bitten, twice shy? We think not. Go for it because the Patriots will win this game. It’s not because they defeated the Colts last week. We expected that. It’s not because Pittsburgh is a phony and doesn’t belong like many of this year’s playoff teams. At 16-1 thus far, who could argue that? It’s not because the Steelers don’t have the personnel to win this game. They have skilled players at almost all key positions. The main reasons are the quarterbacks and the coaches. These two teams match-up fairly evenly in most aspects of the game. But at coaching and the key quarterback position, the Patriots layover this opponent. Bill Cowher has had some success. Moderate, in our opinion, but some success nonetheless. However, in money games, he’s been a dud. In four AFC title games, Cowher and the Steelers have emerged victorious just once. Bill Belichick, on the other hand, is a stud. He will ‘x’ and ‘o’ any opposing coach to death. He’s the mad scientist of football. Give him a game film and a clipboard and he’ll beat you. Give him a second shot at you, especially when you beat him the first time around and you are a sitting duck. Think not? Think again. Under Belichick, the Patriots are 13-0 when facing an opposing quarterback for the second time in a season. Coach Bill just held the Indianapolis Colts to three points. The same Colts team that put up 522 points this season, led by a quarterback that set a new NFL record with 49 touchdown passes. Three points! How 'mad' is this guy? When asked if his defense can play any better than they did last week, Belichick replied, “If we play like we did against the Colts, we'll get killed. It'll be a lot worse than whatever it was out there the last time because Pittsburgh is not the Colts.” Crazy, huh? Yeah, like a fox. So now it’s Tom Brady and the plotting Belichick against Cowher and rookie Ben Roethlisberger. Ha! Let’s see…Roethlisberger has played one playoff game and needed overtime to win it. Tom Brady is 7-0 in playoff games, including two Super Bowls. Not to take anything away from Big Ben but the youngster has come down to earth and the league has caught up to him for the past month or so. In the past seven games, the Steelers have scored only nine offensive touchdowns compared to 17 field goals in the red zone. Not to mention Roethlisberger’s seven interceptions his past four games. Of course, the Steelers did defeat the Patriots earlier this year by a 34-20 count. However, that makes the Pats even hungrier this time and the circumstances of that game did not favor the Pats. New England had just come off a big game against the undefeated Jets while the Steelers entered that game off the bye. More importantly, Corey Dillon was injured and did not play in that one. With Dillon in the line-up, this is the most adept offence the Pats have had during this successful run. Are the Patriots the sexier and more public team? Perhaps, but not for the same reasons as recent public teams. They are not the underachieving Colts. They aren’t some one-year wonder. They don’t showboat and they don’t rest on their laurels. They’re a well-oiled machine that’ll be going to their third Super Bowl in four years. Play: New England –3 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
Boy, that Michael Vick is exciting, isn’t he? The guy runs better than the majority of running backs in the league. He exploits any opening given to him and often creates his own. Despite being a quarterback, he finished 23rd in the NFL in rushing. If you’ve ever watched him throw a football, you’d know that he has a gun that most pivots can only hope for. Last week, Vick led his team to a 47-17 thumping of the Rams in a game where he ran for 142 yards. While Peyton Manning won the MVP for his incredible year, one could easily argue that Vick is as important to the Falcons as Manning is to the Colts. When considering who to take in this NFC final, it is impossible not to consider the talents of Vick and the current success of his Falcons. Unfortunately, that would be a mistake. Simply put, Atlanta is overmatched here. The lingering effects of that aforementioned win over St. Louis can easily influence your financial endorsement this week. The current 12-5 record of the Falcons may convince you that taking points here is a wise choice. It’s not. Atlanta is stepping up in company. A decent allowance horse running against a Grade One stakes winner, if you will. Playoffs and championships are about defense. If you don’t believe that, ask the Rams or the Colts or the Vikings. They all ranked in the top 10 in offense. They’ll all be watching from home. The Patriots, Steelers and Eagles all ranked in the top 10 in defense. The latter trio ranked one, two and three in fewest points allowed. The Eagles allowed a mere nine points more than the Steelers but would have been the league’s stingiest if they had not allowed 58 points in final two weeks of the regular season when they mailed in both games. Conversely, the Falcons ranked 14th in offense. It should be noted that the only team to ever win a Super Bowl when ranked worse than 10th defensively, were the 1983 Oakland Raiders. There will be those of you that will discount Philadelphia’s defensive ranking because they play in the weaker NFC. However, what does that say for the Falcons? Despite playing in the softer conference, they allowed more than 21 points per game, which again ranked them 14th in the league. That ranking is alarming when considering that Atlanta faced the three sub .500 teams in their division (Saints, Bucs and Panthers), twice each and also had the luxury of playing the doormat NFC West which includes the Niners, Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks. In order to be successful, the Falcons must be able to run. If they can’t run, they certainly cannot make it up with a passing game that finished 29th in a league of 32. Despite Vick’s apparent assets, he only averaged 150 yards per game through the air this season. That’s a problem against this Eagles squad that, when healthy, can be a very stellar stop unit. With run-stoppers Hollis Thomas and Derrick Burgess back in the lineup and the strong set of linebackers that Philly employs, this could be a nightmarish day for Vick and the ground game. This is also not Vick's preferred surface as it won't be on a fast track inside a dome. Andy Reid and this version of the Eagles arrived around the same time as the new millennium. They have been in this spot every year since. However, with a confident Donovan McNabb, an experienced and prepared coaching staff and the far superior team this time around, the Eagles will finally be making the long-awaited trip to Jacksonville. Play: Philadelphia -5 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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></o>New England –3 over PITTSBURGH
The betting public was drunk on Peyton Manning and the Colts last week as money kept pouring in on the prolific Indianapolis side. And just like most drunken stupors, there is a subsequent price to pay. Upon the Patriots defeating the high-flying Colts in a dominating fashion, New England opened as a small favorite and once again the public immediately started backing the sexier team. Once bitten, twice shy? We think not. Go for it because the Patriots will win this game. It’s not because they defeated the Colts last week. We expected that. It’s not because Pittsburgh is a phony and doesn’t belong like many of this year’s playoff teams. At 16-1 thus far, who could argue that? It’s not because the Steelers don’t have the personnel to win this game. They have skilled players at almost all key positions. The main reasons are the quarterbacks and the coaches. These two teams match-up fairly evenly in most aspects of the game. But at coaching and the key quarterback position, the Patriots layover this opponent. Bill Cowher has had some success. Moderate, in our opinion, but some success nonetheless. However, in money games, he’s been a dud. In four AFC title games, Cowher and the Steelers have emerged victorious just once. Bill Belichick, on the other hand, is a stud. He will ‘x’ and ‘o’ any opposing coach to death. He’s the mad scientist of football. Give him a game film and a clipboard and he’ll beat you. Give him a second shot at you, especially when you beat him the first time around and you are a sitting duck. Think not? Think again. Under Belichick, the Patriots are 13-0 when facing an opposing quarterback for the second time in a season. Coach Bill just held the Indianapolis Colts to three points. The same Colts team that put up 522 points this season, led by a quarterback that set a new NFL record with 49 touchdown passes. Three points! How 'mad' is this guy? When asked if his defense can play any better than they did last week, Belichick replied, “If we play like we did against the Colts, we'll get killed. It'll be a lot worse than whatever it was out there the last time because Pittsburgh is not the Colts.” Crazy, huh? Yeah, like a fox. So now it’s Tom Brady and the plotting Belichick against Cowher and rookie Ben Roethlisberger. Ha! Let’s see…Roethlisberger has played one playoff game and needed overtime to win it. Tom Brady is 7-0 in playoff games, including two Super Bowls. Not to take anything away from Big Ben but the youngster has come down to earth and the league has caught up to him for the past month or so. In the past seven games, the Steelers have scored only nine offensive touchdowns compared to 17 field goals in the red zone. Not to mention Roethlisberger’s seven interceptions his past four games. Of course, the Steelers did defeat the Patriots earlier this year by a 34-20 count. However, that makes the Pats even hungrier this time and the circumstances of that game did not favor the Pats. New England had just come off a big game against the undefeated Jets while the Steelers entered that game off the bye. More importantly, Corey Dillon was injured and did not play in that one. With Dillon in the line-up, this is the most adept offence the Pats have had during this successful run. Are the Patriots the sexier and more public team? Perhaps, but not for the same reasons as recent public teams. They are not the underachieving Colts. They aren’t some one-year wonder. They don’t showboat and they don’t rest on their laurels. They’re a well-oiled machine that’ll be going to their third Super Bowl in four years. Play: New England –3 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
